When the Brexit vote show fever went off, international press suddenly began to argue about a possible scenario and the building of a new relationship between UK and the European Union. The big question was about a model to adopt in the future UK relationship with EU: a Norwegian or Swiss style approach were the main options. Now many leave campaing supporters claim for a quick hard Brexit model of negotiation, in which UK leaves the EU and all the related institutions like the EU Council, Parliament and is no more under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and leaves at the same time the European Single Market. More pragmatic Britons ask for a soft Brexit in which UK keeps the current commercial relationship with the EU countries as well as all the obligations related to the free circulation of people and the borders management. Most daring ones also ask for a mild Brexit that qould involve the same commercial advantages for UK but dropping al the ties related to the EU regulation compliance about free circulation of people, borders and all the rest, that seems quite unrealistic in any future negotiation scenario. Meanwhile the economic scenario isn’t too much positive.
Philips Stephens on the Financial Times analyzed the issue these days while Theresa May is headed to her first EU summit in Brussels. According to the FT “Britain will be poorer after Brexit — the pound’s devaluation is acting as a transmission mechanism to reduce living standards. Just how much poorer will depend on the quality of the relationship Britain retains with its biggest trading partner and on whether it can compensate for lost European opportunities by becoming a more attractive destination for others.”
Mrs. May debuts in Brussels with a huge pressure from its party and the public opinion, and faces the big expectations of her counterparts in Brussels demanding for a clearer UK direction in the negotiations about the future relationship with EU. Unfortunately FT and other observers are sadly persuaded it won’t be clear at all: “The government has yet to come up with a coherent strategy for disengagement. In place of a plan, there are a series of inconsistent impulses and a cabinet power struggle between anti-EU zealots and economic pragmatists.”
Important UK trade partners are meanwhile concerned about the future relationship. UK is the fourth destination market for the Italian exports, for example, and major industrial association (according to Businesspeople) fear a 2017 slump in the overall Italian exports value by 3% to 7% which account for € 600 mln – € 1,7 mld. Quite a relevant concern if we take a look to the last years performance of made in Italy products in UK.
The match is still far from a clear end, and the chaos in the British coach bench doesn’t boost encouraging expectations in the audience.